On Comparison Of Experts
نویسندگان
چکیده
A policy maker faces a sequence of unknown outcomes. At each stage two (self-proclaimed) experts provide probabilistic forecasts on the outcome in the next stage. A comparison test is a protocol for the policy maker to (eventually) decide which of the two experts is better informed. The protocol takes as input the sequence of pairs of forecasts and actual realizations and (weakly) ranks the two experts. We propose two natural properties that such a comparison test must adhere to and show that these essentially uniquely determine the comparison test. This test is a function of the derivative of the induced pair of measures at the realization.
منابع مشابه
Identification and Comparison of Components Influencing Rangeland Exploitation from Pastorals and Experts' Viewpoints Using SWOT and AHP
Abstract. Over the past decades, range managers have devoted extensive efforts to conserve and restore rangelands and sustain their exploitation but these efforts are more focused on the classic sciences and the exploiters' knowledge and experience have been neglected in the process. Therefore, current study was done to deal with the prioritizing and comparing factors affecting rangeland exploi...
متن کاملComparison of Cooperatives’ Members and Experts’ Views on Public Participation in Forestry and Rangeland By-Products (Case Study: Cooperative Companies, Lorestan Province, Iran)
This research was conducted to investigate the factors contributing to thefailure in the forestry and rangeland by-product cooperative companies in Lorestanprovince, Iran. A descriptive-correlative research design was used. The statisticalpopulations were 1100 people divided into two groups of experts from natural resourceagency in Lorestan province and members of cooperative companies. The sam...
متن کاملComparison of Experts and Rangers’ Opinions on Prioritizing Barriers in Participation of Rangers in Range Plans (Case Study: Tehran Province- Lar Moor)
There are some barriers for rangers to take part in range plan projects andevaluation. Their participation is very useful for range managers to plan and provide solutionsfor solving problems. This study aims at comparing barriers of participating from rangers andexperts point of view in Lar moor rangelands, Tehran, Iran. In this research, data werecollected based on documentation-library and fi...
متن کاملComparison of distance education regarding primary health care effect on knowledge of Behvarz and other health team members
Abstract Introduction: Health Education is the first and most important step in health care. Therefore it is necessary to pay more attention to personnel education. Objective: The goal of study was to compare effect of distance education on knowledge of Behvarz and other health team members regarding primary health care. Methods: In this quasi-experimental study, 185 employed personn...
متن کاملA review of pathological explanation on behavioral addictions and its comparison with drug addictions
In the past, addiction was known only by drug addictions, Currently, its definition has become much broader. Gambling, compulsive buying, video game addiction, problematic internet use, and even extreme work or sports can be classified as addictions. The existing criteria for experts in diagnosing different types of behavioral addictions are highly controversial, and this has made it difficult ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
- CoRR
دوره abs/1710.09461 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2017